Re: the Harris multiple paths for victory, I think on the flip side she has more paths for defeat. Its without a doubt (imo) more of an uphill battle for her.
The Constitution doesnât define how many justices the SC has, so Roosevelt reasoned that if a majority was being unreasonably disruptive of the will of the public (related to New Deal policies), he could just add justices. In the end, that didnât happen because his own party was unenthusiastic. Confirmation does not require a super majority, just a simple majority. However, as we have seen, Senate procedures can be used to delay an appointment if the Administration does not have the two-thirds majority needed for cloture, forcing the vote.
In theory though, there is no super majority requirement for increasing the SC size. In practice, with the GOPâs destruction of norms around confirmations in general, there is likely going to be a supermajority requirement for any appointment. Republicans held up some routine Biden appointments for two years (ambassadorships, etc.), and I expect the Democrats will now have recognized that the applicable norm is no longer deference to the Executive branch, but rather âturnabout is fair playâ. It will have taken them long enough, but with the current SC composition being a result of the GOPâs abuse of that prior practice, there are many Democrats now willing to do the same.
All points to the US sliding steadily toward being ungovernable.
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Actually thatâs how I remember it now, plain majority, but the rumblings were that they didnât want to do it (senate) as it would be a back an forth every time the opposite party got into power.
Biden is not proposing to expand the court.
See US Politics thread for details.
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The issue is not so much the appointment, but creating room for the the additional appointments. The current number is set by legislation passed under Andrew Johnson and so unless someone can think of a clever end around, and could get that passed a SC likely to want to strike it down, it would require the 60 votes super majority to pass a superseding law through the Senate
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In practice, it has become about as difficult to confirm a SC justice as it is to pass legislation - which is obviously not the constitutional intent, but is the reality at least for a Democratic president. The only complication is the need for the legislation to also get through the House.
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https://x.com/keithboykin/status/1817667108333035826
Canât embed because I donât do Elonâs X, but a Fox News poll showing Kamala with much better favorability rating than Trump in Penn., Wisconsin., Mich., and Minn.
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Is that real?
I think that has been photoshopped. Michigan is showing 104% preference, for a start.
Real numbers for the Fox poll in that period are MN Harris + 6, WI Trump +1, PA and MI tied.
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Yeah, I just checked.
Michigan 49/49
Minnesota 52/46
Pennsylvania 49/49
Wisconsin 49/50
You made me google Fox News SJUSA.
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Itâs a favourability poll not voting intentions.
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I donât know about the exact graphic, but there are now several good quality polls (fox newsâ polling is actually considered a top notch polling firm) that have shown a dramatic shift over the last week with Harris gaining 10-15 points over Trump in net favourability compared to when she was not at the top of the ticket.
They dont tell us quite the same thing as normal polls (voter intention), but it is very encouraging none the less
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Lol, good catch, or itâs all those illegal immigrant voting twice.
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Those other numbers might be real, just favorability which doesnât have an either/or component to it the way voting intentions do. If that is the case, it suggests a real uphill climb for Trump in Michigan - that kind of favorability gap suggests he has all the voters he can possibly get.
Conversely, it really makes the Harris campaign have to think carefully about PA and WI.
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So the lessons are:
1, Harris is doing better than expected.
2, Fact check everything.
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See, now thatâs funny!
Most people on this thread donât see US politics like you do, but it is better to have your opinion. And yeah, those pesky illegals voting multiple times⌠
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Had just gotten it on a feed I subscribe to.
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