… or Europe.
In most developed countries there is a health care system which covers the entire population. Suggesting that in the US is seen as ‘extreme left wing’.
That’s why the rest of us are sceptical when we hear that a US politician is left wing.
The most left wing politicians here in America would be garden variety moderates in Western Europe. I was not aware of the Overton window and just looked it up (I learn something regularly on these boards) but the example is spot on.
She has openly spoken about race disparities and in the US that makes her a liberal extremist.
Lessons learned from 2020? 0
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1759389182210764996?s=20
She has to say that though doesn’t she?
If she really wants to get the Rep nomination, she’s going to need at least some of his supporters.
All pie in the sky of course.
I’ll put it this way.
A Modi who’s unapologetically right wing in India would be termed as centrist (in terms of US) in most of his policies. I don’t mean the temple building idiocy but in the other welfare policies etc.
Sanders for instance won’t be a left winger in India. He would be a centrist.
The entire western political landscape has been dragged to the right by the neoliberal agenda since the Reagan/Thatcher years.
Not the reason he is, but he has been gaining on black voter support. It’s probably more to do with the perception that current admin’s has not done/doing enough.
Haley predictably beaten in South Carolina, will be interesting to see what she does. It was apparently a bigger win than the polls suggested, but it’s too early to call that imo.
The conspiracy theorist in me thinks that her sponsors don’t want Trump to win (at all), and will continue to support her even though they know it’s inevitable that he will be the Republican nominee. The theory is that the distraction will cause enough harm in order to prevent him from being president. Not sure how outlandish that theory is.
Most likely she’s positioning herself for a run in 2028 after Trump has imploded. Plenty of jeopardy in that strategy.
She might be tempted to run as an independent this time, hoping she’d be able to take enough support from both the others for differing reasons.
Not sure what the polling is like in a three way race, but she could make a dent in Biden’s vote among those concerned by the age thing.
i saw a comment that shes just hanging in there because second place could become first place regarding Trumps health/legal issues…
dont know how close to the truth that could be?
Trump’s legal issues won’t prevent him from running. Nor will they damage him among voters as he is simply painting himself as a martyr, and, surprisingly, this seems to be working.
If that or a health issue ruled him out, Haley would still have an impossible task to become the Republican candidate in face of the Maga Maniacs.
It was the opposite - yet again trump under performed his polls. See here
https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1761578567345815818
Its a weird primary campaign with Trump running as kind of an incumbant more than just a presumtive nominee so it’s difficult to know what to take from any of it. But one interpretation is that Trump’s certainty of victory is convincing people it isnt important to go out to vote for him. The other though is that the pollsters have now collectively over corrected in search of the “missing trump voters”.
What has been a consistent theme though is that not only is Hailey’s vote share is encouragingly high (for people who dont want Trump to win), as is the common sentiment among her voters that say they wont vote for him in the general. In SC that was 60% of her 40%.
That is less a conspiracy and more a reflection of what they are telling us. While Hailey as a candidate has waffled on Trump, both her sponsors and voters are from the GOP Classic wing who want to be done with Trump. Hailey’s performance is suggesting they are a bigger group than we think they are. The ongoing question will be over their conviction to being anti trump once the general rolls around. If even 25% of her vote stick to their supposed principles then Trump cannot win.
Will they go to Biden, Kennedy or just not vote.
If past elections are a reliable guide (they have been erratic in the last 4), not showing up is the most likely outcome.
These voters are not the not showing up types as there are too many other races the will want to participate in. They are more the grandstanding write in for someone dumb like “Ronald Ragan”, but there has been more talk in this cycle about their willingness to affirmatively vote for Biden. It could even come down to whether they are in a swing state - Christie has made this point that being in NJ whether he does a write in or votes for Biden ultimately wont matter.
Ultimately though I dont think it matters that much. Simple back of the envelope calculations suggests there is a group of Republican Classic voters in the range of 10-20 million who say (now) they absolutely will not vote for him. Even accounting for that number softening as we get closer to the election it’s an enormous barrier to winning even if they dont vote for Biden and instead just refrain form giving him their vote, so I think it will come down to how many can keep to their current word. We saw a LOT of this in 2016 and ultimately the entire party got on board.
I think they probably going to offset each other, meaning some wont vote because its Biden, some wont vote because its Trump. It doesn’t seem like democrats/republicans/independents are particularly enthused by the options.
I think you are going to get a significant amount of spoiler votes even though the voters know its essentially a wasted vote (Kennedy)
I think the current situation in Israel-Palestine is going to be a bigger risk to Biden losing votes than his age will, especially as many of the people who may be swayed by his support of Israel are the Demos that got him over the edge in tight swing states any Dem cannot really afford to lose. Specially that is the Arab vote in Michigan, which makes the Democratic Primary there today really interesting. It’s difficult to take much from a primary process for an incumbent (unless it goes really poorly as it did for LBJ in 68), but so far we havent seen any evidence of the soft Biden vote the press keep telling us there is. Today will be the biggest test yet.
This is a pretty good comparison.
Trump was right to be treated as the presumptive candidate, especially given that the party as a whole forwent the opportunity to take him to task for the Jan6th activities. From that point on he was always going to be continue to control the party. But the press is treating him as for more of an incumbent candidate (maybe rightly so), yet without holding him to any of the usual standards of incumbency. The last time a GOP incumbent president faced any sort of intraparty challenge was 92. Bush retained more of the vote then than Trump has so far and the concerns (correctly stated) about what that said about Bush’s strength in a general were heavily covered.
https://x.com/thenation/status/1762204638609023302?s=20
