I find this odd. He done and he can say what the wants/thinks but no, he’s dedicated to the cause of anyone but a dem…
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/06/politics/mitch-mcconnell-endorses-trump/index.html
Once a cunt …
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History will judge him and these types as shallow.
If you can divorce yourself from the seriousness of it all, it’s a fascinating election because the data are just completely broken with signals pointing in every possible direction. Political punditry has long had the problem of interpreting political data through outdated prisms, but I think that has never been more relevant, with such a broad scope, as it is today. The result is way too many people have just picked a narrative and support that, often over and over again, with reference to only those data signals that would support that narrative with no attempt to reconcile that against the larger data environment or even any recognition that the counter arguments are also strong.
- There is no way a President with this level of accomplishment - legislative, administrative, economic - should have approval ratings this under water, but here we are.
- No President with approval ratings this low should be anywhere near competitive in a reelection bid, but even the most pessimistic view of the biden campaign would have to concede it is at least a very tight race. You know my argument on this - that we are in era of accelerated hyper-partisanship that makes even recent historical comparisons (essentially anything pre-golden escalator) about how this relates to electability meaningless.
- No incumbant with approval ratings this low would ever retain such stringent support from his own party and not just avoid a series challenger, but see any such talk immediately shut down, but such is his support within the party establishment that this is where we are.
So while we have one supposedly weak candidate, the other candidate is narratively presented as “strong”. There are things to point to for support of that - the fact we all knew he’d win the primary without even competing in it. The fact he’s consistently if only narrowly ahead in the head to head polls with Biden. The fact that even after all this he still retains fervent support among his large base. But what about the counter arguments?
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For a nomination process that has been a slow rolling coronation, he is losing a big portion of the electorate, and is so consistently across the various contests. That indicates sizeable opposition within his own party. Where are the “Republicans in disarray” headlines?
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He has consistently lost more support than the polls predicted. this is a recent summary after last night
x.com -
The exit polls from the 1/3 of the vote he is not getting are BRUTAL. They don’t just prefer Haley, the majority are certain (at this point) they will not vote for Trump in a general.
Maybe there are explanations for some of the above to suggest they are true, but not critical in a general (primary polling is generally worse than general, a portion of the anti-trump primary vote may in fact be Democrats who voted in a Republican primary, the polls dont capture things that happened in the month prior to the vote), and someone might make those arguments to support the “biden is in trouble” narrative, but literally no one with any voice or reach does. They dont even consider how to balance Biden’s liabilities with the clear liabilities of the person he is running against, or even the considerable strengths Biden continues to show. The just pick a narrative then cherry pick the evidence to support it (and yell at everyone for not wanting to hear hard truths when their pathetic analyses are pulled apart).
Someone is going to get it right this election because ultimately its a binary outcome that you can get right by tossing a coin and having it come up the right way. What I dont see is anyone on track to get it fight due to accurate cogent analysis. The likelhood is someone is going to get famous to having the explanation that seems most right to people who book the news TV shows, but is still just something they pulled out of their arse. They will use their theory of the case to continue to incorrectly politics for the next 15 years before finally the next generation realize they know nothing and gets ostracized. And that is how James Carville was born.
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I know people lose their shit at any reference to 30s German, but McConnel should go down as America’s Von Hindenburg with his elevation of an mistaken calculation of being able to use a one time and public opponent as a temporary strategic ally
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Is this also not a polling thing that has a slight bias towards democrat? Or does this only come into play with a Republican vs Democrat matchup?
It is referencing polling about the Republican nomination process - Trump vs the other Republicans.
He has now repeatedly, across a lot of a states with different characteristics, failed to meet the margins predicted by the polls for those (within party) state contests
And Haley is officially out.
The question now is how she approaches the general. Even for all her comments of his lack of fitness for office, I struggle to see her not coming around with some tortured rationale to ultimately endorse him.
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It would be nice if she ran as an independent, highlighting the difference between herself and volatile and unqualified Trump. She would have no chance of winning, but could take some votes away from him.
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I have heard a lot about the funding disparity between the DNC vs RNC, how much of a difference would a significant gap in funds play out?
It’s difficult to say.
The party is not the campaign and the campaign in the post-citizens united era is not even necessarily the most cash rich campaign arm of the candidate.
What we know is the RNC, the entity that is supposed to be strategically funding Republican campaigns up and down the ballet in the interest of getting the best overall Republican result, is skint. What little money it has it is signaling it will put towards Trump’s legal bills as needed. Trump had no campaign to speak of in 2016 and it was the RNC that largely created and funded one for him.
The Trump campaign itself is doing better but is still well behind Biden in terms of fund raising and cash on hand. Unusually, Trump has a far more professional team at his official camapign than he’s had before so they might be able to make decent use of what finds they have even if they continue to lag behind Biden HQ
But in politics today its the dark money superpacs that have the big money. Any shortfall in direct funding Trump may have you’d think he’d get a big boost in this department. There is debate in how valuable the Superpacs really are because they can often go off message, but that is a concept that doesnt exist for Trump.
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In the presidential campaign, probably not much as Limiescouse notes. But the RNC/DNC aren’t supposed to make the primary focus the Presidential race, the Prez campaigns usually do most of their funding. The NC warchests are supposed to fight for control of House and Senate, and that is where the effect might be telling.
You are too kind. I’d have been happy with once a day.
And yes Australia is full of sharks, poisonous spiders, snakes, toads, and crocodiles, big crocodiles. Great place if you don’t mind running from fires for 4-6 months of the year but you normally have a pool in the back yard.
But @sbym came from there…
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Watched a bit of the state of the union address, first one I have watched as it’s not really my thing. I was just curious to see how Biden would do talking for a relatively long period of time. He has been fine imo, the usual mumbling every now and then, nothing out of the ordinary. I can’t comment on the content as I am not sure if what he is saying is factual or accurate.
You could always do some research to find out. It’s part of living in a democracy for the citizens to inform themselves about the issues. There should be a free and healthy media and access to information so that you can make decisions based on reality. Obviously media outlets should be treated with scepticism, but there are enough sources for you to reach your own conclusions.
Part of the problem with democracy at this time is that the public have been led to expect everything to be handed to them on a plate and that they shouldn’t have to put any effort into any part of their lives. This is particularly true of the US, but is true for all western countries.
It’s easiest to simply follow the media outlet which confirms your previously held views rather than look for other points of view, but alternatives do exist.
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I smirked. Fucking beyond D-movie acting.
I should really have posted this in the joke section. Watch this, try not to smile or laugh. It’s hard. Where the hell does the GOP find these clowns ?
https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1765952945797922945
Notice her trembling “I am in tears over what the satanic evil CCP is doing to our Godly country” voice. A Victorian weak willed woman who is about to faint into the lap of gentleman act. It’s so terrible. And this on Women’s Day. Her acting is so bad, it is beyond ridiculous. Should be sent straight to a GULAG for re-education into a proper actor.
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She’s right about the CCP though Magnus. Unfortunately the fascist failed states of Israel and Russia have distracted us from the biggest enemy and the one who ultimately needs to be weakened by hook or by crook.
Whoever that chick is just can’t deliver regardless of the content. Too much corporate training becomes fake.
If there is one thing many pollies can naturally do, it is to deliver a speech. Same for CEO’s and football managers. I have seen many pollies stand up at business events and nail the waffle despite being lying cheating assholes.
Not sure the 2 US of A candidates are much good either.