Does the escalation in the Middle East fall under foreign policy from an election issue pov?
If so, what would drive this to a level that it becomes more of an issue in the US for voters? Current level is Iran currently firing misses at Israel, and Israel starting ground invasion into Lebanon.
I’m not interested in who you think will do a better job, just interested in the actual impact on the election issue. Also, there is a Middle East thread, so keep it as close to election as possible.
American voters just don’t vote on foreign policy. The escalation works kind of like a Rorschach test. Pro-Israel voters see Iranian aggression, the Democratic left sees Israeli aggression. Nobody actually changes their vote, they just recognize preconceptions
Recall that the 1980 election was incredibly close in the polls just two weeks out. Gallup had Carter winning just 2 weeks before the vote, though to be fair their two polls between then and voting day were picking up movement toward Reagan - just not to the scale that actually happened. That is a version of foreign policy with a direct hook into domestic thinking. It wasn’t even a major focus of the debate at the end of October. Without question, it did hurt Carter, but nowhere near what the truly awful economy did.
I actually think that right now the response to hurricane damage in two swing states is going to resonate more.
So it does fall under foreign policy? Does it not make a difference if people think it will lead to a wider conflict? E.g. closer to a war that includes the US directly.
Congratulations to the guy for making it to 100, even after going into hospice care.
Yes, because the average American voter
a) doesn’t see this as remotely likely to escalate to include the US in a domestic sense;
b) is thoroughly accustomed to seeing US forces being involved;
and
c) actually doesn’t have a real policy choice. It comes down to Democrats providing a very weak restraint on Israel while supporting Israel, and Republicans not bothering with that.
As far as baseless claims from this campaign this one isn’t really that bad. It’s not too far from the sort of dodgy claim a normal campaign would make that people let go because you can see the point being raised even if it isn’t entirely true. As discussed there is a study that sort of points to it (although without that being their conclusion) and it is consistent with the general narrative that parenting is expensive and some prospective parents are likely being put off because of just how much so it is. E.g. it is difficult to comply with the car seat regulations with a “normal sized” car once you get a second kid and families quickly find themselves facing $60,000 being the starting point for a car that can fit their seats, buggies etc. For a ticket running a “it’s just too damn expensive” campaign, it isn’t an unreasonable claim as a part of a general story on needing to provide better support to young families if we want people to keep having kids.
Of course the problem is as they don’t want to actually do anything to support young families such as the child tax credit, community programs for day care, or any of that other socialist shit that actually makes parenthood more affordable, what is he actually saying? Do away with child safety regulations and parents will naturally elect to have 5 kids because 3 will likely fail to live to adulthood?
Had dinner with another couple the other night who own a vacation home down here, and live in the greater Atlanta area. Both Trump voting republicans the past two elections. She is adamant about voting for Kamala while he is still trying to decide if he will vote for her, or just not vote for president.
Think there may be a number of people thinking this same way.
If you follow the discussion above, the authors disavowed such a suggestion.
https://x.com/garretthaake/status/1841128890070183976?s=61&t=VxX1vHU3NOwwNhlbyICG-g
Iran literally bombed US military facilities during trump’s presidency. He then lied about the fall out from it.
NBC more liberal leaning? Some of you get upset when I post from a more conservative source.
Still a significant lead for democrats, however the closing of the gap towards republicans is hugely significant. Logically I dont think this will be significant in the swing states within the rust belt area as I believe the majority of the Latino vote would be along the sun belt.
Understood, which is consistent with what I said.
It is not the point the authors think people should take from their data, but if you approach it from a Bayesian perspective starting with the understanding some people choose not to have kids because it’s too expensive (seemingly reasonable) it isn’t a huge deal to point to this as roundabout support for that prior - car seat regs (coupled with a host of other issues) are illustrative of issues making young people decide not to have kids.
I understand it isn’t precisely what he said, but it’s not that much further from it the sort of convenient mistelling of a story that any campaign would make. But I also get he’s a lying fuck face who doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt, so if anyone wants to pile in on him, I’m on board with that.
Walz getting stronger after realizing Vance is a top top liar and evader.
I think your bigger problem is cherry-picking individual polls.
Individual polls don’t tell you that much, but when you compare them over time and with other polls there’s a lot more to be mined.
Who knew the solution to the housing crisis Americans are experiencing was to just start off as an illegal immigrant who can just buy up multiple houses as soon as they get here
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1841308485213966754
https://x.com/gtconway3d/status/1841245080880861251
The worst part is that people actually believe this crap.
You would hope that the longer Trumps wild talk and downright lies goes on the less voters will believe it,at least I hope so.
The bollocks Vance dribbled should not help him a lot.
He’s been doing it for 9+ years and there’s still over 40% of the population who will vote for him whatever.
How there are still undecided voters after everything that has happened since 2016 is mystifying.
It’s elementary, my dear Bekloppt.
Almost half of Americans are clueless idiots.