The October Marist is now out. Not wildly different, but less optimistic for Trump. Harris widening a lead (but not massively) in both registered and likely voters.
A perverse fact is that no one is now hoping to see Trump win more than Trudeau’s inner circle. The only pathway they now see to winning is being perceived as the guy most Canadians want to stand up to Trump (rather than Poilievre who is basically a youtube Trump wannabe). If Trump loses, I expect Trudeau will resign before Christmas.
Walz self-identifies as someone who isn’t good at debates (possibly a self-limiting belief given how good he is in interviews and on the stump). It was reported shortly after his selection was announced that he raised it during vetting and made a point of reminding Kamala of it when she called him to ask him to join her ticket. Given that, I think their approach was more about playing within the limits of what the candidate himself was comfortable with. There was an opportunity to land a bigger blow, but I think they rightly wanted to get out of there without a big misstep from asking him to be someone he isn’t, and are content to do that with Kamala being as good as she is at throwing those haymakers for herself.
One thing I have hated since the debate is the press’ insistency on it being a needed return to civility in our presidential politics, because to me civility is not just about tone, but content and a commitment to engaging in good faith. I think it is absurd for people to call that performance from him civil when he lied through his teeth from start to finish. But, despite all that Walz still walked him into showing his arse at the end with his comment about the 2020 election and the result is they played it relatively safe and still seemingly came out ahead.
A Harris supporter would want bigger overall margins and would likely point to the non-white vote as why the lead isnt bigger, but I struggle to see much that is bad with that set of results (in the context of a known tight race), let alone something that is “brutally bad”
She is leading, even more in likely voters, and is so by a bigger margin than last time. And while that increase is almost certainly statistically insignificant, it at least argues against a reversion to Trump advantages from predebate
She has closed the gap in the white vote by 4-5 points compared to 2020 (actual vote shares, not 2020 polling)
What she lost of the male share compared to 2020 she has gained with the female vote share
The independent vote share is WAY off in Trump’s favour compared to 2020, but this is a category that is difficult to compare between cycles because of how self-identification as independent changes between successive elections.
The undecided vote share is smaller than we are used to seeing and among the large majority who are decided in who they prefer, there is a bigger commitment to vote among Harris’ support.
I think the biggest negative in the whole thing for Harris is the result on support for deporting all illegal immigrants, but results on this question has been shown to be highly sensitive to how the question is asked and so I think we can conclude a number that high here is almost certainly the result of a wording choice that pushed the responses in that direction, which is itself important information for the Harris campaign to use to refine the wording of their message (see the same arguments fail when framed in appeals to democracy compared to when the exact same argument is framed as an appeal to freedom and the Republic)
Biden was leading Trump by 11 pts nationally. Now before a couple of you have a hissy fit, yes I do understand that a poll from 4 years ago cant be used to analyze a poll from today. Its just interesting imo.
Can’t stand Vance. He is a phony and will say anything he needs to. But…
He is intelligent. He does have the gift of the gab. And he did win the debate with Walz. I think for Vance he wanted to show a gentler, more reasonable side to the American people in anticipation of holding future office beyond the VP.
I’d say he won the debate 60-40. I’d also add it will be inconsequential for the polls. And it will also attract Trump’s ire, and he will throw Vance under the bus soon enough, because in Trump’s orbit there is only himself.
The Republicans have done a heck of a lot of groundwork to file lawsuits ahead of the election to try to discredit the whole process and steal it.
I’m hoping for a decisive Harris victory so they can’t do it. Kamala needs to get on TV a bit more, do some interviews and get her message across. It is a clear three-pronged message:
You will be better off under me. I will put many billions of resources into the middle class because I believe in the middle class. Donald Trump only cares about tax cuts for his rich friends. Harris has a winning message here if she can hit the right tone.
Your reproductive rights will be protected under me. Donald Trump tore down Roe v Wade and continues to brag about it. I believe in freedom, and the right of women to make their own choices about their own bodies. Harris has a huge winning message here.
I have the character for this great office. She should run videos of January 6 and talk about 140 police officers being beaten up, by an angry mob whipped up by Trump.
Three main issues. Get out there and hammer them home. Get help from your allies. Buttiegieg is great on Fox News talking to the MAGA crowd. Get Newsom, Whitmer, Shapiro and others all over the media with your message!
And of course, redouble your own efforts.
There are a few weeks to go. If Harris can open up a good lead and win this thing by a little margin, Trump will have WAY less leverage to steal it.