https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1846197211647947140
Some Pennsylvania numbers from yesterday. He has surmised that if the democrats reach a 390,000 firewall, Harris stands a very good chance of taking the state.
And everyone claiming to be Australian 
You should always like the messenger.
Itâs a little unsettling that theyâre publishing these numbers already. Surely they shouldnât be counting until Election Day?
I added the caveat that the margin of victory will be âwellâ over the polls, so in other words not close, and if there was a Christmas miracle for Harris, it would be close (like the 2020, there was a few with around 20k or less votes difference, Georgia, Arizona, etc). I also made a mistake, a Trump win would be at least a point over the polls, AND over a point on the actual result.
And I do believe in polls, I just donât bother with polls from certain states as they are obviously irrelevant to the electoral predictions. So only battleground or other states that are close (% wise).
I donât think these are counted votes, theyâre returned ballots by party affiliation (but Iâm not disagreeing that I donât particularly think any information about voting should be released before the election closes).
Thatâs what I would have thought. Smell test has me thinking bs. As far as I remember, from recent history, Democrats destroy Republicans in early voting, so it would be interesting to find out how they came up with the firewall number.
You need a new nose perhaps?
Iâll ask Rushie.
Yeah, it is not a vote count, but reporting on updates to ongoing counts is unfortunately standard. Even on election day we see the counts being updated âdump by dumpâ while people are still standing in line.
That it happens is the basis for one of the few legit arguments the Bush team used in 2000. The original Florida call for Gore came when the heavily Bush counties in the panhandle, located in a different time zone than most of Florida, were still open. Their argument was we will never know how many votes they lost from his voters responding to the news and going home rather than continuing to wait in line to case a vote for a guy who had already lost.
Jeez, that ear looks pretty good for only being shot 3 months ago
Latest betting odds : Trump 13/18 , Harris 11/8.
Thatâs quite a turnaround from just one week ago. 
Dale - Trump lied his arse off, but they are all old lies that have been repeatedly debunked that he just wont stop telling so I was able to copy and paste all my old response to them and get this piece out very quickly
I wish sheâd have me on stage instead of these weirdos
Taking questions from reporters at a campaign event in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, Vance was again asked if Trump lost to President Joe Biden four years ago.
âOn the election of 2020, Iâve answered this question directly a million times. No! I think there are serious problems in 2020,â Vance said. âSo, did Donald Trump lose the election in 2020? Not by the words that I would use.â
Meanwhile the groundwork of Project 2025