Another interesting take is that since the financial crisis of 08 every election might reasonably be described as having been decided by an electorate just utterly dissatisfied with government in general, and wanting a change. Obama winning reelection in 2012 looks like it invalidates that idea, but once you factor in that in facing Romney he was up against someone who represented even more of the establishment who had fucked things up than the sitting president did, I think it just adds nuance to the idea rather than rejecting it.
That appears to be more or less the argument Ben Rhodes is making here
Working class voters might actually have understood that the Biden administration stood up and fought for them, but what if views of what government can do through normal means just isnât capable of materially improving their life enough? What happens if they instead decide that the role they want government to take is not to put in place conditions where the size of the pie grows, but to allow them to protect their piece of however big the pie is now from outsiders.
My âanalysisâ which is based on very little data and a heap of distance is pretty much this along with some pretty cost stuff i.e gas.
For me the parallels with UKâs red wall electing Boris Johnson are pretty stark and my gut feeling along with a load of hope is that it plays out in a similar fashion.
Vote for change is going to be a recurring theme for elections in the near future. I fully expect UK parliament to be flipped once again when the next election rolls around. Lots of flipping tables coming up.
The economy, and in particularly, familyâs finances are just so high up on the list of priorities at election time for almost everyone that it probably should be the only thing politicians are focusing on if they want to get into government.
We can talk about what good Biden has done on that front but if people are feeling like they are struggling more now than 4 years ago, which they probably should be given the global financial climate, then thatâs a difficult mindset to overcome.
Hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but Harris not putting space between herself and Biden was a huge blunder. Hard to do Iâm sure when you are the sitting vice-president, but probably more reason to break from these shitty party norms of allowing presidents to name their planned successor or for VPs naturally being next in line, whatever the deal was in this situation.
Someone totally split off from this current administration might have stood a chance.
I think we also live in a time where being connected 24/7 the way we are, and given the sort of information that grabs attention, means we are more generally inclined to a state of dissatisfaction. Maybe that is warranted given what happened in 2008 and how little of a real reckoning there was, but I think that state of perma-grume is likely going to make it difficult even for government who meet their challenges to appear succesful.
And this isnt just âin my time things were better and people were nicerâ thing. Over here we have a group that quizzes a subgroup of people doing the exit polls and they have found that increasingly people are not just wrong about factual issues (which campaign promoted policy x), but are increasingly inclined to incorrectly view aspects of the country in a negative/pessimistic way. We had a recession when we didnt. Crime is rising when it is falling. Illegal immigrants commit more crime than native born americans when they dont. There is surely a Trump effect in there in our electorate given that is all he runs on, but I think the perma-connectedness makes us mainline negative information in a way that has us stuck in everything is shit mode.
Harrisâ campaign moved the numbers, so its possible had they simply had more time she could have got the numbers she needed in the battleground. I think the problem with that suggestion is she was made the candidate precisely because there was no time to do a real primary. Had she been given the time she needed to turn things around, it would have meant there was likely time to run a proper nomination contest and its likely she doesnt come out of that. And if the nominee is anyone else, that gives them so much more room to run against an unpopular adminstration in a way Harris was never going to be able to and come off as authentic.
Ultimately where I have settled is that Biden fucked this up by trying to run again. There are now inside stories (unattributed) that their internal campaign numbers were even worse for them than the public numbers so fuck knows how they miscalculated that badly. Just incredible hubris and selfishness. But even had he said right after the midterms that he was stepping aside so a proper nomination contest could happen, the complete absence of any attempt to sell their accomplishments allowed them to be characterized as an unsuccessful administration and would have created a huge deficit for any alternative nominee.
The lesson I hope Dems take from this is that is politics requires 365 x 7 work to sell yourself these days. You cannot just go away do a good job and think you can show up at election time and start campaigning.
âWhat the hell?â Far right âoutragedâ as Mitch McConnell âengineers a coupâ against Trump
Story by David McAfee
Donald Trumpâs allies are panicking about what they say is a potential âcoupâ being organized by Mitch McConnell against the incoming president.
Tucker Carlson, a former Fox News host and far-right hero, took to social media on Saturday to warn his 14.5 million followers about the purported plan.
âWhat the hell is going on in the US Senate?â Carlson asked. âHours after Donald Trump wins the most conclusive mandate in 40 years, Mitch McConnell engineers a coup against his agenda by calling early leadership elections in the senate.â
Carlson continued:
âTwo of the three candidates hate Trump and what he ran on. One of them, John Cornyn, is an angry liberal whose politics are indistinguishable from Liz Cheneyâs. The election is Wednesday, itâs by secret ballot, and it will determine whether or not the new administration succeeds.â
He then added that âRick Scott of Florida is the only candidate who agrees with Donald Trump.â
âCall your senator and demand a public endorsement of Rick Scott. Donât let McConnell get away with it again,â Carlson warned.
Far-right Laura Loomer, whose presence by Trumpâs side during the campaign was seen as controversial, added to the conversation.
âTold ya. I said Republicans would lose their mind when they realized what McConnell did in violation of Senate GOP bylaws by scheduling the vote for November 13,â Loomer said Saturday. âWhy didnât anyone have the balls to talk about this a month ago like I did? A little too late for the outrage given that we should have been addressing this BEFORE THE ELECTION to protect Donald Trump.â
She then added, âPeople cried about Unity thoughâŚ. This is what âUnityâ gets you. A McConnell coup to undermine the entire second Trump admin. Enjoy your âUnity.ââ
Good points here, certainly Harris not putting daylight be tween herself and Biden was not a great move, and failing to take a definitive stance on some issues didnât help the Dems at all.
Another point in relation to voters elsewhere,like the UK,much the same applies, people are now wanting to see definitive change, nor tinkering around the edges, which is where Starmer appears to be,at the edges.
Here, many feel the Labor has forgotten its roots ,too, and looks was thought they might pay a price too, although voting is compulsory, the opposition started off where the Tories were in July,have done nothing but have caught up in the polls.
Starmer probably needs to remember that it is the Labour Party and start to consider it,a lot more and a lot earlier than a few weeks out from the next election.
Harris did not have the luxury of time,she had to stand up in a hurry, and clearly in the eyes of many she didnât.
The lunatic can,and will do a lot of damage in 4 years.
Nice to see, but far too late, people are wanting to know what tariffs are!
They are gonna learn!
