US Election 2024

Erm, isn’t there a lot of documentary evidence of him saying it?

Did you click on the video?

I don’t like clicking on Trump stuff, you don’t know what kind of nastiness may ensue.

Ok, gotcha.

I know what you mean. Sends my cunt alarm into overdrive

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It’s late at night here and I’m recovering from a bout of viral infection and I first didn’t see the “c” in your response and almost vomited from the picture it raised…

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Omg! I’ve created a monster! Even discussing that vile beast causes pestilence and suffering.

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That piqued my interest and I had to listen. I think you are right! :rofl:

For anyone that thought Trump was a one-off, sorry to say, there are plenty of surrogates out there - For anyone that may have missed the comments by this guy… we have a real cnut in the making - First video depicts some of his Jim Crow comments, second video depicts just a small proportion of the kick-back…!
The arrogance of this guy can be seen seeping out of his every pore.

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I’ve come round to the idea that everyone who speaks in support of Trump does so because they’ve seen just how succesful the grift is and they want in on it. The fact that some of them are black just makes it even worse.

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Polling very close. Trump seemingly unscathed from the trial.
Over nine percent for the nutjob.

:face_with_peeking_eye:

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Im not buying polls this time around, they’ve been terrible indicators for a number of election cycles.

Republicans have been getting trounced in marginal districts for local elections over the last two years. I think that’s a better indicator.

Edit: also only a very small amount of those polls include polling taken after Trump’s guilty verdict.

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Well, they do indicate that it will be very tight. 1% is well within the margin of error.
If Trump loses there will be turmoil and the system will be put to test. That much is clear already.

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I could be guilty of being too simplistic, but I don’t trust the polls either. The game has changed.

I think Biden will win. Here’s why. The incumbent President historically has a large advantage in an election. Trump just doesn’t have the numbers.

As incumbent last time, with all the machinery at his disposal and being the ultimate insider, he couldn’t win the election. And that’s with years of gerrymandering and voter suppression thrown in. He cried foul but there was no substance to it. He lost lawsuit after lawsuit on the big lie.

He just didn’t have the numbers.

So fast forward to today because more things have gone against Trump along the way. We had January 6th. He lost against Jean Carroll too. Twice. He is now a convicted felon on 34 counts, awaiting sentencing (he will obviously appeal the shit out of it, as that’s what he has done his whole life). He has at least three other serious lawsuits bearing down on him.

It is shameful that the Republican Party has allowed it. Anyone who is a principled conservative, like Romney, or Liz Cheney, or others, have been kicked to touch by the mob. They are angry and vicious, no doubt about it. And I do fear something very serious will happen again, bigger than January 6th, with more deaths.

But again, in spite of the threat, they don’t have the numbers. People aren’t stupid. They aren’t massively impressed with Biden the man, just because he is so clearly past it now. He really should be sitting on his porch with a g&t in hand, reflecting on it all in his retirement.

Most people are fairly quiet in their politics, much as it is hard to believe when you see social media and the coverage on TV. But I firmly believe that enough of the country will have its say on November 5th, and Trump, a serial loser, will lose again.

This will be a watershed moment for the Republican Party to decouple from Trump, and let the other lawsuits run their course too.

His base will still be there, but I believe saner voices will prevail moving forward.

He couldn’t win even with all the advantages of being incumbent. He sure as hell isn’t going to win now, as such a tarnished outsider.

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One thing that I always think about with polls is who the people are that answer them. Its well and good saying “a representative cross section” but I know if I get a robocall, or even a call from a number I don’t recognise, I’m unlikely to answer it never mind give my political views on it.

As far as I remember, the polls always used to err on the side of democrats, so the margin of error was very important. If the polls are the same as the historical polls, then It means that Trump is even more ahead.

I have found the campaign contributions, and support for Trump (from his base) quite interesting. He was within reach (for nomination) before the first charges were official, and after that there was zero chance of catching home. DeSantis was the closest, yet the gap between him and Trump just grew.

The contributions are also interesting, and the amount Trumps campaign received after the guilty verdict is unprecedented, and while Bidens also jumped, the difference was so large that it must have been quite concerning for the Biden campaign. The second red flag was that his next fundraising was in a liberal area, yet exceeded expectations significantly. You obviously can draw accurate conclusions from this, so it could all be from his base, or it could be from his base as well as some independents. At worst the conviction has motivated a whole bunch of people, and it’s likely he has gathered voters that were otherwise not going to vote. It also seems that some new and notable larger donators have also started appearing.

I think these cases have had the opposite effect that most were anticipating.

I think the final Lichtman could be interesting as there are a few indicators that are subjective, and then there is the scandal indicator that is quite messed up imo as there is no definitive trend as to whether people think Trump is guilty or being politically targeted (not talking about actual conviction, just on perception). And is this indicator for incumbent or both? Does the Hunter situation change this? Does the laptop that Biden continuously denied, and that has now been verified, change this? Is a scandal subjective?

Generally speaking polls favour Republicans, with 2016 an exception.

Really? I thought racist nutjobs were ashamed to admit to pollsters that they were racist nutjobs.

With Trumpton mocking Biden at every turn, re his age, his lack of cognisance and his immobility… Trump needs to remember, if he loses this election - he will be the same age in 4years when he nominates himself to run again…!!

I would love to see PC Potter locking up the orange convict.

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