US Election 2024

Away End - General Chat
1328

The two are only partially connected, but for a long time have been treated as one as presidential campaigns became their own organization that would give instruction to the DNC/RNC. I would argue that having a viable candidate should actually be the last element, not the first.

The recent tradition has been the national committees keep the seats warm and build out the national organization, then hand over the keys (and leadership roles) to the presidential campaigns. A fast convention will mean that in most states, there isn’t much of an organization - characteristically, the state nomination campaign morphs into the state presidential campaign committee with some resources parachuted in from the national level. But those state nomination campaigns won’t be significant for many states that selected delegates after the nomination was over.

1329

No she’s out of the picture now - it’d likely be a dogfight between Harris, Newsome, Whitmer and Pritzker for his delegates if Biden were to step down.

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1330

I know the other ones, but who is Pritzker? (Governor of Illinois, I mean what’s he like)

1331

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He got on TV last night too to attack Trump. I think anyone who wants a shot, should it come up, made sure they were visible.

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1332

At his age it’s probably more to do with obstinacy than ego.

1333

It almost seems as though the Republican Party have had sleeper agents planted in the Biden campaign for a while, to undertake the machinations of ensuring Biden stays in office long enough to face Trump at the polls - That (debate) last night had the death knell sounding for the Democrats ringing loud and clear - Well it is either that… or that was the biggest ‘rope-a-dope’ act by Biden in readiness for the second round in September…!

1334

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1336

Again, that is not what the DNC does.

After 2016, the DNC did what it is in place to do - organized a robust competition of ideas and personalities and gave party members a vote in choosing who the next nominee would be. As an organization it simply doesn’t have the power to ignore the vote and nominate someone else. The parallel is the RNC not being able to insert Ted Cruz instead of Trump in 2016. It certainly doesn’t have the power in the case that a sitting president from their party decides to run again, especially when no alternative candidates are presenting themselves.

To get a different candidate than Biden the thing that needed to be different was not for the DNC to wield some imagined power that in reality they dont have, but for someone credible to stand up to contest his renomination, participate in the primaries and beat him. At this late stage, with the delegates having already been won, a challenge at the convention would not stand up to legal scrutiny unless Biden stepped down and released his delegates.

This situation has always been one of Biden’s choice to run again, and being just popular enough within the party with a record in office they collectively wanted to run on for no one to risk their career by opposing him. We will see if that equation changes now, but even if it does it will go no where without someone getting to Joe and convincing him to step aside.

1337

The Dems are sleep-walking towards Trump 2.0 unless there is an intervention.

One of the hardest jobs in any field is to know when your time is up. Most cannot see it. Jurgen knew, even if we all wanted more. But his self awareness was such that he knew he wasn’t quite the same, and needed to get out, to recharge.

Biden’s age is such that there is no recharge for a future job, but he has one last gift that only he can give, and it could change history, and that is to fall on his sword.

My hope is there will be enough clamor that the message will get through loud and clear, and perhaps in a heart to heart weekend at their Delaware home, Jill Biden will tell her husband that his time is up.

It would be the most Presidential thing he could do at this point.

Then a short contest to crown the new candidate, and for me, even though I waxed on about Buttiegieg the other day, it was pretty telling that Newsom and Warnock were visible and prominent around the debate.

Yes, of course there are some skeletons in the closet there, including that hound who is now married to Donny’s lad, but at this point something needs to happen.

Newsom is photogenic and speaks well, and he would own Trump in debate. He has managed a state that, if it were a country, would be the 5th largest in the world based on GDP. Newsom knows how politics works. Warnock would help to solidify the African American wing of the Dems, who have been a little too overlooked.

Newsom-Warnock. But only if Biden steps down.

And therein lies the jeopardy. If he steps down, will it signal certain defeat for the Dems? Or if he stays on, will it signal certain defeat? That’s the calculus to process.

Step down Joe.

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1338

There would be opposition to Warnock if only for the implications for the Senate with how difficult it would be to find another candidate capable of winning the seat he would have to vacate. For President it may be considered worth it. To just be the Vice…unlikely

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1339

Fair enough, I didn’t I think that part through fully. Warnock already has an important job!

Still, regardless of how it might play out, and there are several permutations, I think Biden needs to fall on his sword to allow a new thing to have a chance.

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1340

You do have to love all the press takes that Biden showed his lack of fitness by having so many opportunities to counter trump’s lies and failed to do it…this from people whose actual job it to do that and refuse to do it.

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1341

I think Harris at minimum has to still be VP under any Biden replacement, the possibility for division in the party would be too high if she was bypassed,

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1342

She can have Warnock’s VP job then!

Mind you, if the ticket was a California 1-2, that might struggle with the messaging.

1343

You’re actually not allowed a ticket with 2 people from the same state on it. It wouldb’t be a real obstacle because if she hadn’t already Kamala could change her official residence to DC or Virginia, but it’s a weird historical quirk

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1344

There is a lot of really solid surrogacy work being done today

https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/1806675271942095149

1345

I simply dont think he’s fully aware rather than ego.

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1346

Being president is a different job than running for president. This distinction was the basis of the Ezra Klien piece a couple of months ago that generated such a furious response among Dems, but it was always the distinction even Biden was trying to lean on - regardless of what you think of his age he has the record to justify reelection, even more so when contrasted to Trump’s genuinely terrible record. Justifying that became harder last night, not just in a sober internal review of how it went but from simply seeing the reactions.

1347

This kind of sums up my feelings about the whole thing. This contest is unusual because of Trump’s record. Yet if you turned on last night to watch knowing nothing about the men you would know nothing of Trump’s recent Felony convictions or his incredibly serious ongoing cases in DC, FL, and GA

https://x.com/AdrienneLaF/status/1806542036775907795

Swing voters are given permission to overlook how these things should be disqualifying because the Republican party and press dont treat it as such.

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1348

That’s a very interesting question. Just think for a second that he does know his history, has been advised and is correct.

Fuck.