Lee?
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Itās like they are looking at Lichtmanās 13 keys and deciding that the will loose the Incumbent seeking re-election key, so we might as well stick with Joe.
At this stage no idea what the right decision is as they both have major repercussions.
You canāt win an election through a TV debate, but you can lose one.
Four years ago the main criticism was his age. He overcame that, coming across as the elder statesman. He could brush off snide remarks about him lasting the full term as ageism.
Today he looks frail both physically and mentally. That even his most ardent supporters struggle to defend. I honestly donāt think he will last a full term even if re-elected. Thatās a huge problem.
The only saving grace is that there is still 6 months to go. He needs to be able to swallow his pride and step down. That is the best outcome for both his party and the nation.
Itās blindingly obvious, if he doesnāt Trump will win this. It plays right into his wheelhouse of attacking the individual rather than debating politics. I can see one of the most toxic campaigns brewing. Sadly there is enough truth in it that it will stick.
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It might be his wife that wants to continue hogging the limelightā¦
We usually know when we are slowing up a bitt,in Bidenās case he has to think he can do another four years standing on his headā¦he should know that, and suspect Jill does too ,who knows what is being talked about between them.Importantly,as ISMF points out, if he continues ,Trump has a stick to beat him with and he will, for sureā¦a younger person, on the other hand will have the same stick to beat Trump with, and boy,is there material there.If Biden was to go now,a new person would have plenty of time to get better known, and Trump will become a whole less likely to get another term.
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Stick or twist?
Stick, and probably lose, as Bidenās frailty is alarming even to those who support him, never mind the swing voters who might decide this.
Twist, and thereās still a risk for a loss, but I canāt help but wonder if it could be a turning point and momentum could shift decisively.
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In all walks of life, performance related efficiency surely comes with having the energy and enthusiasm to fulfil, or complete the role/task at hand. This is not a criticism aimed solely at father time, it comes to us all, but there is not a cure or remedy for old age and lack of energy that tails alongside - it is just a fact of life.
From hand mowing a large lawn, to climbing a high ladder to clean the windows, and many other menial undertakingsā¦ common sense alone dictates the energy levels, and cognitive awareness for doing such jobsā¦
As being President of the most powerful country on earth, this common sense surely has to be up there amongst the priorities more than any otherā¦ Biden is unlikely to ever be remembered for his working life achievements at this rate - more the shuffling, staring into space shell of a man he is beginning to portray - that is a sad fact, and one he needs protected from by his nearest and dearestā¦ not wheeled out on some porters trolley to be paraded on the world stage, well, in my opinion anyway
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Heās clearly not going anywhere , so we might as well get used to it. The best that could happen is that he rediscovers his mojo over the next six months and the debacle the other night is forgotten. Trump still has his sentencing to come in a fortnight , where he could presumably be given a prison term on the back of what are likely to be scathing sentencing remarks from the judge.
There also remains the possibility that the Jan 6 case could restart in some meaningful form , if the SC toss out his immunity claim , before November. As far as I can see Bidenās best chance now is of reminding people what happened that day.
https://x.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1807230859734339614
Clyburn and Pelosi having a say in this ironically says it all about where the Dems are as a party.
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Well, they are undeniably authorities on what exactly ātoo damn oldā means
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Itās bullshit though. NBC are reporting an event that was on his schedule weeks ago as a meeting of his closest advisors to discuss his future.
By all accounts the Biden team took the decision to run again without much consultation outside his closest group of advisors. One thing to understand about the dynamic is that pretty much everyone in the room would have been out of a job and position of influence within the party had they collectively decided not to run. That calculus is still present and so by all accounts they are largely disinterested in what is being said outside of their immediate group and I think we have to question the level of self-interest involved.
I think a lot of really bad over extrapolation has been made since the debate (āthey knew he was sundowning and lied to usā), but the reaction, whether reasonable or not, has pushed us closer to questions about his competency to finish out his term than whether he can win reelection. You cannot win reelection when questions about the 25th amendment are having to be fielded, but I dont think this team will be receptive to it.
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The questions are reasonable and the stakes are far too high for it to be decided on the self interest of a small group of individuals.
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For all the talk about stepping down though, there really is no option other than Harris. There are administrative issues with a change happening this late related to the delegates and campaign funds, but the biggest issue is having a black women as next in line and bypassing her would tear the party in half.
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The party is torn already.
It always is. But bypassing a black women for a role she was appointed to be next in line for through back room dealing would be catastrophic levels.
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Putting her up would likely be just as catastrophic. Her numbers are no better than Bidenās up against Trump , and just imagine what the rw press would be like.
I think the only way it would fly is an open convention.
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I agree in part. This has been my response to the ābut voters say Biden is too oldā argument from the beginning - every alternative has something that the RW would immediately turn into a big liability that the mainstream press would launder for them. We donāt know how whomever came out of a primary contest would have been able to stand up to those and so it made Biden stepping down, the horse you rode in on, a big risk.
Nothing regarding those risks of an alternative candidate has changed. But what might now is Bidenās ability to weather the criticism that he is too old. His theory of the case was āyou say IM too old, but I have a track record to run on showing I am the person for the job.ā He failed to articulate that last week, which was a double strike against him. For as long as they go on for, you donāt actually get many chances in an election campaign to move the needle. Biden was just faced with one and he failed and gave little reason to think he had it in him to fabricate those opportunities for himself with the time we have left
The problem is an open convention is not really āopenā. It just allows a group of 4000 or so party insiders to tell the party who they will get as their party nominee. Those delegates choosing someone else would be a message the partyās black voters would hear very clearly.
You demand my vote, you just wont have one of us at the top of your ticket.
I think the only way you put someone else on the top of your ticket is if Harris publicly elects to step down as well, but that starts the fundraising from scratch as the DNC does not inherit the campaign funds raised by the Biden-Harris ticket.