I dont think that makes any difference to us in practical terms though does it? We’re well within any FFP limits, and spend what we earn - so whether or not it falls under FFP norms it is still coming from the same pot of money.?
1 Like
Are we still abiding by FFP norms? Silly FSG, those rules mean fuck all…
So I’ve ran some numbers to try and look at possible midfield signings for this summer as I think it is likely we will want at least one new signature in that area.
I looked at those with a profile potentially interesting to us… first team regulars, under 26 years old and sharing similar key attributes to our current players (which should help narrow it down to those capable of playing our style).
In order to see our attributes I looked at Thiago Alcantara and Naby Keita. As the two biggest midfield signings (I am not counting Fabinho as I think of his role as different) in the Klopp era these two should theoretically be the ‘type’ of midfielder the manager wants at the club.
I identified three areas that both Keita and Thaigo excelled at and that logically fit into our tactical system - Progressive Passing, Progressive Carrying and Shot-Creating Actions. After sorting through all of the players who fit the initial filter from Europe’s top 5 leagues (England, Spain, Italy, France and Germany - I don’t have stats for other leagues) I then narrowed it down again to my top 25 where I did a deeper dive on a wider group of categories - Pass Completion %, Passing Under Pressure, Miscontrols, Times Dribbled Past, Press Numbers, Tackle+Interceptions and non-penalty expected goals and assists.
These are the top 5 options for Liverpool in Summer 2022 according to my search (for the sake of honesty I’ll note that the actual top 2 from my search were Man City’s Rodri and Newcastle’s new signing Bruno Guimaraes neither of whom are realistic targets so I left them out.
- Lucas Paqueta - 24 - Lyon
Paris St Germain are credited with making Paqueta a “priority” in the upcoming window and the remarkable numbers he has put up for Lyon clearly show why. Paqueta, who has spent much of the season playing in a forward role (watch this space when I talk about strikers in a few days) is an absolute machine in terms of chance creation. He comes in at 5th on this list due to how often he loses the ball - a side effect of his playmaking skills.
- Fabian Ruiz - 25 - Napoli
Ruiz lacks in defensive numbers compared to other options on this list but is a supreme talent in ball retention and in creating chances for teammates. Rumours are the Spaniard has already set his sights on leaving Napoli and could be available for as little as £16m. He would be a luxury option.
- Ismael Bennacer - 24 - AC Milan
Although not quite as creative as Ruiz, Bennacer has significantly better numbers in defence, grading out as one of the best players in Europe for ball recoveries and tackle+interception ratio. More of a metronome type midfielder and is very poor in the air but would be a solid upgrade for the third regular midfield spot.
- Cheick Doucoure - 22 - RC Lens
Tottenham have been credited with an interest in Malian midfielder Doucoure and it is really no surprise with the range of skills he has shown in a box-to-box midfield role. Doucoure is solid all around with no glaring weaknesses to his game. What really stands out his high rate of both progressive passing and carries (usual caveats for it being the French league apply).
- Amadou Haidara - 24 - RB Leipzig
In 2020, ahead of Liverpool’s Champions League game with RB Salzburg, Jesse Marsh stated that he could name five players in the Red Bull system that would thrive at Liverpool. No doubt in my mind that top of his list was Leipzig’s Amadou Haidara. The 24 year old has been a powerhouse in the German league with an extremely well rounded game but particularly impressing in terms of his chance creation and progressive passing. Liverpool have a good relationship with RB and Haidara will be the best midfielder on the market - best of all, he rejected a move to Man Utd in January.
In case you are interested here is where the current Liverpool midfield graded out (Elliott has not played enough yet to be graded).
- Thiago Alcantara - 1
- James Milner - 5
- Naby Keita - 6
- Jordan Henderson - 11
- Curtis Jones - 17
- Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain - 28
12 Likes
On Bennacer, I think he’s in final stages of negotiations with Milan over a new deal. Also, he mostly plays as a #6.
On Haidara, maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think he was even that good for Leipzig so far. I think we might read too much into Marsch’s quotes, he was maybe speaking more stylistically. The next big moves from Leipzig will probably be Nkunku, Olmo and Gvardiol (in no particular order or timing). Maybe also Laimer (I thought he was older, perhaps that’s a compliment for him!).
Will be very interesting to see where Ruiz goes. He was initially brought in as direct replacement for Jorginho. He wasn’t good early on in that deepest role, became much better when they pushed him in the #8 positions. Another left footed midfielder who plays RCM a lot.
Anyway, I think we’ll look more into a dynamic/energetic CM, but who can also play of course. We’re at a level now where we need a little bit of everything from a new midfielder, but all players lean towards a certain style.
With the likes of Thiago here for at least one more season after this one, Jones and Elliott around… I think there’s room for a new player of different style to them (even if they’re all different in their own way).
Hendo will be 32 this summer and Fabinho will be 29 in October. They’re our most “defensive” (let’s call it like that) central midfielders we have. Not really counting Millie as he can always stay as the extra option like he has done (and even more than that). Plus, we might sell Neco this summer, feel that Bradley isn’t quite ready to directly backup Trent and we want extra security by keeping Millie for one more season.
We still need to see what happens with Keita and Ox, but let’s assume that it might possibly be the end for them. Or at least, that the club is open for offers.
I see room for some fresh blood of the mentioned style, someone with the best years of him ahead, but not too young (not Elliott/Jones-young), already with some seasons under his belt.
4 Likes
Maybe someone like Boubacar Kamara - is he on a free in summer? Robust player, while we keep our powder dry for Bellingham the following summer, when one or two start to age out?
2 Likes
Seko Fofana from Lens, exceptional player.
If we can’t get Bissouma then he’d be my next choice.
Bannacer - he’s on my list for DM as well (although he’s 10th from the initial filter so doesn;t make my top 10). I looked at central midfielders and weighed them by both roles because tbh when it gets to midfielders for Empoli and teams like that I don’t have a clue who the attacking and defensive midfielders are!
Haidara, I don;t know the full story with his position at Leipzig. From the outside it looks like he’s he is someone who is a regular in the team but doesn’t necessarily play the same position all the time. For this I’m just looking at the stats. Eye test is a seperate category and one I don’t have the time for to do in any meaningful way. Based on his performances statistically across the last 365 days, Haidara grades out better than anyone else (apart from Thiago, Rodri and Guimaraes).
Chamberlain I’m a bit worried about in terms of his future here. Keita isn;t available often enough but I think his contributions when fit are good. Chamberlain’s performances can vary from “decent” to “fuck me that was bad” and coming in with a grading of 28th - when already embedded in our system - says to me his is underperforming and could be on the chopping block.
Elliott will be added to my grades when he gets a few more appearances. I’m expecting him to look pretty strong.
1 Like
I only did a deep dive on the top 25 results from the initial filter - which was Progressive Passing, Progressive Carrying and Shot-Creating Actions (chosen because of Thiago and Keita’s high output in those areas) so neither Kamara or Bellingham made the cut.
Bellingham is currently graded at 45 (below average progressive passing output, with slightly above average progressive carrying) and Kamara is 58 (slightly above average for carrying and passing but very low in shot creation).
I have a different criteria for defensive midfield - Kamara comes out at 17th with Bellingham in 81st currently.
4 Likes
Great work on the dive. Looks at Liverpool recruitment from the right perspective IMO.
On Ox, I think he’s gone this summer. Keita is staying put. Honestly, I think his hearts in London along with his partner and child. Believe he lives in Surrey. So I imagine he will end up at west ham or maybe Brighton or somewhere like that.
We definitely are bringing in a dynamic midfielder this summer. I like Ruiz, interested to see any other prospects out there.
Who’s on your top 10 from a grading perspective?
1 Like
Discounting Liverpool players the top 10 was…
- Rodri, Man City
- Bruno Guimaraes, Newcastle
- Amadou Haidara, RB Leipzig
- Cheick Doucoure, RC Lens
- Ismael Bennacer, AC Milan
- Fabian Ruiz, Napoli
- Lucas Paqueta, Lyon
- Frenkie De Jong, Barcelona
- Maxence Caqueret, Lyon
- Teun Koopmeiners, Atalanta
Some interesting names…
Youri Tielemans: 22
Matteo Guendouzi: 27
Renato Sanches: 29
Julian Brandt: 31
Houssem Aouar: 32
Mason Mount: 33
1 Like
Yes, great analysis cheers mate. Adds a good level to discussion.
I think Elliot, Jones, Carvalho if he comes…. will be the progressive midfield options as we look to the future.
I see more need for defensive and/or all rounder. If there’s a free option, while we keep our powder dry for Bellingham, that makes sense to me, but who knows?!
I agree with the notion that one or both of Ox and Keita are vulnerable this summer.
Can’t wait to see what we do. Whatever it is, I will be confident as our recruitment has been very good.
2 Likes
I guess I’m just being cautious on Bellingham. Don’t get me wrong he’s got time on his side and I expect he will continue to improve his numbers - it just wouldn’t be the first time a teenaged wonderkid failed to take the next step. Based on his current output level I don’t think he is worth the money it would cost to get him.
Interestingly there was one teenager who actually graded out ahead of Bellingham. Jamal Musiala came in at 24 having scored higher than Bellingham in each of the three initial filter categories. Then in the deep dive Musiala moved up to 15th.
2 Likes
Interesting shout on Musiala.
I get it on Bellingham… very expensive. I would imagine he would cost about the same this summer and summer 2023, so if we do go in for him in 2023 there will at least be more top level data.
It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if we get someone a lot more under the radar though. The whole world knows about Bellingham, and good as he is, the price is higher than the player right now.
Since Tottenham have had an interest in Cheick Doucoure we may just be waiting for them to agree a fee so we can match it and steal another player.
4 Likes
Right on Bellingham. With the kind of money that is required in terms of transfer fees and salary, he cannot and will not be afforded time and grow. Even in the most patient of big clubs like us, where we will play him slowly into the squad, he will almost be expected to make a huge impact whenever he gets a game for us. So to me, with that kind of expectations, I think to pump what, a 100mil on a player, is not the kind of position I like Liverpool to take. I think our strategies have been working very well as far as recruitment is concerned. I think some of us really have to understand, there are PLENTY of good players out there beyond the haalands, bellinghams and mbappes of the world. We have proven it with Salah, Mane, Robertson, Fabinho, Jota, and it looks like Konate, Tsimikas, Diaz and Elliot are going to prove us right too
6 Likes
Where does frank kessie rate ?
1 Like
In central midfield he ranked 51st mainly due to below average progressive passing stats combined with fairly average carrying and shot creation. In defensive midfield he ranks 60th - his tackling stats are extremely low.
4 Likes
I think we are increasingly coming to the position where liverpool will have to manufacture their own midfielder to replace the likes of Keita/Ox.
Identify the next bellingham perhaps. Ideally it should be easier for liverpool and their under 18/23 coaches to get the lot trained in. I dont know where carvalho fits in if he does come thouhh
It wont be easy trying to find an upgrade over liverpools existing midfielders and that too an upgrade where liverpool dont have to break the bank.
Most of the names do not inspire much confidence. Not disputing the stats but none of the lot barring tielemans , paqueta , de jong (debatable) would fit into liverpools midfield. But then its thiago that we are comparing them too so its rather unfair i suppose.
It’s hard to find players good enough to play for us, ultimately. People think FSG won’t spend money but I think it is more the case that we as a club aren’t going to spend big money on someone we aren’t sure about and statistically our current players come off well compared to other options out there.
By my gradings there isn’t a goalkeeper I’ve found that can come close to Alisson. van Dijk and Matip are 2 of the top 3 CBs. Alexander-Arnold and Robertson are 2 of the top 3 wing backs (Kostas is 6th!). Salah and Mane are 2 of the top 4 wingers/wide attackers. Jota and Firmino are 2 of the top 4 forwards.
The market is just tough when you’re as good as we are. I appreciate our patient approach.
3 Likes