Who would you buy?

The Albert
6079

I think he’ll be an okay player in time but I have my doubts that a) he has the ability to play at the very top level and b) that we should stock the midfield with players in their teens and early 20’s supplemented by a couple of lads 30+ and no one in between.

You’d think in terms of pecking order he’d be behind Bajcetic, Jones and Elliott. If we were to bring in Bellingham and one other, you’d expect him to be behind them too. And you’d probably expect him to be behind the older lot as well. I just don’t see where he gets game time to develop beyond where he is now if we keep him.

Maybe we send him out on loan again with a view to this being a make or break season for Jones. If Curtis can’t keep fit and show something more than he has the last couple years then next summer we move on from him and bring Morton into the fold with an eye on the homegrown quota requirements.

I think we’ve started to hold onto young players too long though. Selling academy players that aren’t going to make it at their maximum point of value is important for the whole financial aspect. City and Chelsea seem to have been great at doing that recently. They don’t need the money as such but they do need the profit on the books to play the FFP game. We were good at that but seem to have lost our way a bit, along with a lot else that helped us compete.

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6080

On the point that we don’t maximise value of young players - Liverpool have the highest profit margin of any club for players who have been at the club before their 21st birthday since 2019.

In other words, based on money spent on U21s vs money recouped for U21s - Liverpool have made a profit of £60m since 2019 (£80m recouped vs £20m spent). Man City and Chelsea have both sold more in real terms (both over £200m) but neither side has made a profit on that investment. This does not include undisclosed transfer fees as there is no fair way to add them expect to assume £0.

I haven’t finished updating all the stats yet but so far only 3 clubs have made a profit, with Liverpool being by far the most successful in recouping money through sales.

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6081

Just wondering how this team will fare

Alisson
TAA VVD Konate Robertson
Bajcetic (18) Morton (20)
Elliott (19) Carvalho (20) Curtis (22)
Núñez (23)

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6082

It would do well……in the championship.

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6083

Oh wow, I didn’t realise that. I look forward to seeing that if and when you’re ready to share.

I guess in my head I was just thinking of those big sales we’ve seen but not all the ones that then sit in academies or go out on endless loans. I guess we’ve sold the likes of Williams and Wilson recently but it does seem like we’ve struggled a little more lately with moving lads on. How many times has Nat Phillips been on the cusp of leaving in the last few seasons?

Whereas City seem to have rinsed just Southampton for about £40m this season alone for players that weren’t even in the first team picture. And Chelsea have got top whack for the likes of Abraham, Tomori and Guehi. Albeit to often replace them with players that are questionably better than than mind you.

That ability to bank a load of profit straight on the books is really worth more than just the money you get in your hand. Picking that right time to move these lads on is crucial to maximising that opportunity.

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6084

Morton has only recently extended his contract, so I’d be surprised if he left permanently this summer. I think he’s on course to have another loan next season, probably in Championship, but I wonder if Blackburn would have him on loan once again but as a starter in PL if they get promoted. I don’t have too high hopes for him, though, but that’s solely because of his lack of notable physical attributes.

Likewise, I don’t think that Bajčetić will have much, if any influence on incoming midfielders this summer. Since he was given minutes this season, it probably means that Klopp was always going to use him when the time was right. Time isn’t right but needs must, so… It’s always nice to be so positively surprised by a player from the youth teams, though, hopefully more will follow in the coming years.

I’ve been in favour of Klopp buying two midfielders and a centre back for quite some time and it hasn’t changed. Bellingham and Gvardiol are obviously my dream signings but I’d settle for lesser (and cheaper) players who’d help the team become a strong, organised and dynamic unit once again, greater than the sum of its parts as @SBYM put it.

The strength of the squad will depend a lot on progress of certain young players, though. I’d definitely be happy if the “weakest” players on our bench were fully fit and committed Jones, Elliott and Van Den Berg. I’d much rather see the former two there than AOC and Keita, while Van Den Berg, if he proves his fitness, could be a rather nice option to have in Gomez’ place (that said, I’m going solely on reports I’ve read of his progress, all were pretty positive and optimistic).

Our top brass haven’t handled this transition well at all, unfortunately, it will lead to probably the biggest flux of players since 2016 or 2017. Aside from AOC, Keita, Milner and Arthur, there’s a high possibility that Kelleher, Adrian, Firmino, Fabinho and at least one of Matip and Gomez might leave this summer. It will probably take more than three new signings and banking on the promise and fitness of some young players to cover for it.

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6085

Oh yeah there is more to it than straight cash in-cash out etc and you’re right to say that ability to offload players at precise moments is important for reloading the bank for new spending. Just pointing out that based on the investment we make into youth (U21 players), which is about 10% of what Man City spend and 5% of Chelsea then we are making remarkably high profits.

To be a bit more precise…
Since 2019, Chelsea have had 145 players aged 21 or younger. They’ve spent 407.04m on those, and recouped 124.10, in sales. Giving them a net loss of 282.94, -1.95 on average per player.

Man City. 148 players. 227.76 spent. 176.89 recouped. -50.87m. -0.35 average per player.

Liverpool. 118 players. 23.1m spent. 80.28 recouped. +57.18m. +0.48m average per player.

I will be releasing the full details - it’ll all be part of the youth preview package I release in the summer. Another important aspect that I haven’t gotten to yet is looking at their impact on the first team - if you spend a lot of money on a young player who is a good first team player then that isn’t negative spending. That’ll be added and I’ll work out how to give those teams praise for using youth talent.

5 Likes
6086

Goal Creating Actions per 90 minutes, U23s in Top 5 Euro Leagues:

Kvaratskhelia, 1.16
Musiala, 0.96
Szoboszlai, 0.94
Ouattara, 0.87
Rodrygo, 0.86
Hlozek, 0.81
Adeyemi, 0.79
Saka, 0.77
Brahim, 0.74
Sancho, 0.74

Ouattara only joined Bournmouth the winter window, if they go down, maybe one to keep an eye on.

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6087

Gakpo is also 23 if that is the upper limit for midfielders and attackers in this thought experiment.

6088

It escaped my mind :grin:

6089

None of Henderson, Fabinho or Thiago are untouchable for me. I could see a scenario where both Fabinho and Thiago left in summer, and Henderson went to the Milner role. In addition to contract expirations it would be a lot of outgoings in the midfield, but I wouldn’t be upset, at all, if it happened.

So long as we made good signings.

Outgoing
Keita, Ox, Melo, Milner (or possible coach role), Fabinho, Thiago

Incoming
Bellingham, Kone

Leaving
Bellingham, Kone, Bajcetic, Henderson, Elliot, Jones, Morton.

On the face of it it might not have enough experience, so we might want to pick up a more experienced Bosman, but I would be happy if that’s the midfield group we have next season.

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6090

To go back a bit about how Bajcetic’s emergence affects our plans, there is really no way it can fail to. Sure, I dont think it means we got from buying 4 CMs to 3, or even from 3 to 2, because like Zoran I dont think 3 were ever on the cards. But it likely does impact decisions about the value of other players on the fringes staying, which then all together likely impacts the profile of the players we can target. I think this is especially true in the case that we commit to pushing the boat out for Jude, which might otherwise force us into taking a bit more a chance with the second signing. Does the aggregate effect of Bajectic’s emergence, at the expense of a more senior mucy more highly paid player, allow us to shop in a higher tier for the second player?

6091

He is a player I’ve always been impressed with, but I am also a sucker for overrating the talent of creative players from that part of the world. I think he’d have to adapt positionally, but think he’s got all the tools to become a top creative 8 in any of Klopp’s set ups.

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6092

Where is the Anfield Abseil money, John?

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6093

I get the idea of them not being untouchable but letting both go in the same summer Keita, Ox and Milner would be a massive risk. What do you think we could reasonably get for Thiago say? He’ll be 32 in April and have 12 months left on his deal. I doubt we’d recoup much more than half what we paid for him.

That seems awfully reliant on the two new lads settling in immediately and then mostly kids for backup. I don’t see a scenario where we’re better off with Morton in the squad and the Thiago money to spend rather than having Thiago in the squad and the money from selling Morton to spend.

I know we want to reinvigorate that area but there’s got to be a balance somewhere between where we are now and a scenario like this?

6094

Know it might sound unrealistic to some right now, but if we rediscover or at least improve our level next season, big part (if not most part) of it will also have to do with current players or players who will remain. Some will be on merit, some will be a bit lucky also, you could say.

But even if we wanted, we will not be able to replace all underperforming players this season. And there are levels to that. Surely not all of our players struggled like, say, Fabinho did and still does. Thiago performed mainly and of course he also struggled in some games, he’s not Superman. But I don’t see the need to get rid of him, rather have him for one more season.

Sure, there must be transfer activity and there will be. Like Klopp said today. We need to focus on midfield and what we can do in defence in terms of transfer activity, while in attack we need training ground work. Plus of course, the evidence/experience/results we will hopefully get from final 17 games (most probably) left.

We will have to work with the group in pre-season. Properly, having time without a WC/EC going on, I presume this year the club will do it’s best to allow Klopp his two weeks in Austria and/or France.

I can easily imagine a scenario where we improve next season (enough to win trophies, I don’t know) and we have individuals who struggled this season, doing better again. Don’t ask me who, nobody knows that. And some decisions will have to be made before/during pre-season.

It’s all connected of course. The team is most important, but you could say that certain individuals have more influence than others how the team works.

I want us to finish next pre-season with a much better physical base and much more in sync, how we defend/press off the ball from top to bottom, how we play in possession, how we are in both transitions, cut out our individual mistakes and set-piece problems.

There’s so much work that we can’t solve everything even with Josko Gvardiol and Jude Bellingham. But so much doesn’t mean it’s hardly doable. Just that it’s a bit of everything, in multiple aspects.

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6095

A lot depends on whether we get CL, EL or ECL or none of the above, without any European football we could probably offload Fabinho and Thiago and bring in just two midfielders.

6096

I’d imagine the stat boys love him…

Key passes P90 this season (Understat) of selected players (not a top anything);

Aliex Garcia-2.79
Szoboszlai - 2.53
Caqueret -1.69
Mount-1.59
Caicedo-1.19
Jordan Henderson-1.10
Nunes-1.09
Bellingham-1.05

6097

From our under-23s?

6098

My gut feeling is PSG come in for Salah and we’ll accept it. I can see the thinking as well Diaz, Jota, Nunez, Gakpo we have enough continuity there and you bring in Salah replacement for half the money recieved.

Can certainly see Salah being interested in another challenge.

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