Post match: Liverpool v Bournemouth (EPL 19/8/23 3pm)

[Quicksand]

Salah is fouled more than Grealish and gets less decisions.
It makes no difference if he stays on his feet, they are still fouls.
Incompetence seems to only effect a few?

[Limiescouse]

@JU97ICE

I think this one has been done to death. Salah, for whatever reason, stays on his feet, and Grealish goes down by an opposition player’s slipstream. There is a massive portion of incompetence with referees rewarding a reaction to contact rather than refereeing on the fouls themselves, and there’s an argument to be had that if you can’t beat them, join them.

It’s not an apples tp apples comparison in ways that go way beyond staying on your feet. It’s also an issue of how much using contact, or avoiding it, is a part of the respective players’ games and how refs respond to that.

Players like Grealish only get the ball when in space and play in a way like they are playing touch rugby. Any touch from a defender is obvious and makes it easier to identify for a ref.

Salah is a bull and is great in contact so invites it, even initiates it. It makes the line between a battle vs foul much harder to identify for refs. That means there are many that are let go that should be fouls, and several given to the opposition due to the inclination refs have to give fouls to defenders when they fall over in these contets, because it’s the conservative thing to do. None of it is “fair”, but it’s predicable and the reason why it happens fairly easy to understand and describe.

That doesn’t make it right. It doesnt mean it rules out any other additional reasons for the disparity, but I think looking at a player like Mo and Grealish and the different way they play and expecting the same number of fouls given to them misunderstands how they play and how that impacts a ref will view incidents involving the players. It also illustrates why someone who would present the data that way should have their data analysis viewed very skeptically.

[1972]

Yeah, you’ve not read the data. It’s Salah vs everyone else. You will see he’s not an outlier, he’s off the charts in a place all on his own for not getting fouls anywhere near the rate of the next person to get the least fouls per 90 mins.

[1972]

That explains Salah vs Grealish (I think it’s nonsense by the way) but what about Salah vs the whole league’s attacking players?

[1972]

At the end of the day it’s stats.

Fouls per 90 mins.

Quite easy ones too.

[Limiescouse]

Anyway, I see we’re now all on board with the idea that an attacker in an offside position is not automatically played onside by any touch from a defender purposefully trying to defend the situation.

[sandsoftime]

It might be worth noting… Grealish gets awarded a lot of fouls, by simply staggering forward into the opponent, then goes rolling on the floor… Foul given, when in fact it is Grealish creating the stumbling and falling down…!
Either no foul, or award it to the opposition player

[Limiescouse]

@1972

(I think it’s nonsense by the way)

Which piece? The only refutations I’ve ever received of the idea, which I would have thought would be pretty uncontroversial and self-evident - players who play differently are refereed differently - come from mischaracterizations of what I’m saying.

[WeeJoe]

Likewise

[Quicksand]

You really can’t help yourself

[Limiescouse]

@Quicksand

You really can’t help yourself

Jog on

[Quicksand]

Oooh
Tough guy

[1972]

@Limiescouse

expecting the same number of fouls given to them

I don’t expect the same number of fouls but I certainly don’t expect such disparity either.

As I said, even if your explanation held up for Mo vs Jack what about Mo vs every other attacker?

If you had such an outlier in figures of any kind, you’d want to know why.

[Limiescouse]

@1972

If you had such an outlier in figures of any kind, you’d want to know why.

Mo is an outlier of a player.

But, as I conceded, that doesn’t preclude the existence of other issues also being present that contibute to the disparity

[1972]

Ok.

[redalways]

I very much think the onus is on him to demonstrate his claim irrefutably through a proper comparison with all situations, no?

[1972]

Did you read the deep dive article?

[Flobs]

Mo is a bully and doesn’t deserve to have fouls called in his favor because it’s him who initiates the whole scenario!

[redalways]

I’m more inclined to believe @Limiescouse’s explanation on this specific issue simply because at the time when Tomkins published this, I believe I saw a similar comparison with Salah at Roma.

Now unless you’re willing to believe that Italian referees discriminate against players who are about to play for Liverpool…

[redalways]

Yes, and it essentially was cherry-picking things to include. I’m talking about a proper study where the metrics are determined a priori, without any influence by what we think are the misjustices, and then the comparison done to determine who exactly benefits from the decisions and who doesn’t.

I genuinely can’t be arsed to dig that up again and go through it just to prove a point. It’s not even like I think there’s conclusive evidence one way or another.

I just simply don’t trust journalists to understand what rigorous studies are even if it fellated them.