Especially if they believe City will make it worth their while next season with the buyback clause. They get 40M and get to keep Lavia for a season to help with campaign to go right back up.
Liverpool has to make it worth their while. Of course, Lavia could look much worse next season and City could decide not to trigger the buyback clause, and they’re stuck with nothing. But if they believe in Lavia, that’s a gamble worth taking.
The counter to that is if what City have seen from him so far isn’t enough to entice them to make a £40m offer now then what’s he going to do in the Championship that makes them think it’s worth doing next summer?
City don’t have to wait until next summer to make an offer. A £40m offer from them is better for Southampton than anything we offer under £50m. But despite a decent PL season, they don’t appear interested to get involved in this one right now, even if that risks him going to one of their biggest rivals.
I can’t see what he’s going to do in a season in the Championship to make them pay £40m for him next summer if they’re not open to doing that now. Maybe if Phillips moves on perhaps they’d see it as an easy option.
Personally I think they probably didn’t entertain the idea of Southampton going down. They thought he’d get two years top flight football and then they’d have an easy deal to make if he’d excelled. As it is, he’s going to be playing some way below the level they probably wanted to see him tested at. Or at for a rival.
Looks like he is on the move or maybe his head is not right.
At this point if he doesn’t meet our valuation we should just walk away and look at alternatives. Enough is enough.
for me without getting into direct criticism of FSG, it is just how the whole thing has been conducted. we had expected an over haul since the end of the season with Klopp expected to be backed massively (Joyce). However after macca and dom signing my feeling is that is not the case. Its a sellers market, the prices are what they are and lots of teams are spending top $ on potential (united jus dropped 72 million on jus that). The way its going, one would assume Lavia is going for 100 million and we trying to haggle them down to 85-90 million. But the kid is going for only 50 million in today’s market which is a fair price when you look at what other players have gone for. You can haggle all you want, but at some point u gotta make decision on weather to stick or shift…
Yeah I think the markets really interesting.
I think when £50million was first mentioned for Lavia, probably before our interest, pretty much everyone agreed it was crazy money and way above his real value.
But like you say the players for that position means that Lavia is one of the best so you can expect to pay a price that reflects that.
We got linked to Caicedo at the end of last summer with about £40million being mentioned. Lavia now feels pretty similar to Caicedo then in terms of where they are in their career and potential.
I’d rather over pay for Lavia then go a tier down and end up with a Sangare for example.
Said before i really think the “overhaul” was 2 players. We were done for the summer.
Then Fab and Hendo left unexpectedly and although we like Lavia the club would seemingly rather go into the season short (for the countless season) than pay the extra few million.
Even if this gets over the line we need 2 more at least but i just dont see fsg stumping up the funds.
Let’s be honest here, he’s not worth £50m. He’s a good prospect with one season of decent performances under his belt. He moved for £10m last summer and hasn’t proved anywhere near enough to be worth five times that this summer, especially as his team has been relegated.
However, given the dearth of available options and the hole we find ourselves in he *might be worth us taking the risk (or pretty much being forced to take the risk) and paying over the odds for him.
But right now he’s not even close to a £50m player. The hope is he might prove to be that in time if we spend that on him.
Lfc should be a big enough club to take the odd risk.
If this lad is as good as he is predicted to be then he can be here 10 years.
“If”
It’s a pretty important word there. For example;
If the the lad is as good as he’s predicted to be then we should have spent £10m on him last summer.
Or…
If the club aren’t confident in him becoming the player some predict they’re right not to pay £50m for him.
Or…
If he’s predicted to become such a good player, how come City aren’t looking to get him back instead of coming here.
Or…
If he’s such a hot prospect why are we seemingly the only ones willing to pay upwards of £40m for him?
I’m starting to think we value him some way under the £50m Southampton want and we’ve already done our “offer a few million more” and we’re not that keen to go much higher than that as we think he’s being grossly over priced.
very true, he is not worth that. Nunez was not worth the 85 million, rice the 100 million, enzo the 105 million, caicado the 100 million or coutinho the 120 million. The list goes on. However the seller has all the power to decide the players worth, if u not in agreement with the price, then move to other targets. We also play hard ball when we sell our players (doing it now with nate phillips to leeds). So if LFC brass have made the decision he is not worth that (which he is not), then move on to the next.
“If” my auntie had bollocks she’d be my uncle.
No transfer is guaranteed to work. But £40-£50m gamble is now unfortunately the old £5-10m
This , we all complain about the transfer market being inflated and this is where the problem we have.
£50 million for a 19 year old , in no other dimension is he worth it, nor is any other 19 year old …we won’t ever get transfer prices back to a sustainable and realistic reality if we accept that it’s because it’s an inflated market and then proceed to pay £50 million for a teenager in an inflated market.
We have an academy, and if we don’t have any recruits in there with equal or better skill or potential to be able to cover the position in which we are considering spending £50 million on a product from from another teams academy , then in all honesty everyone at our academy should hang their heads in shame.
It’s up to LFC to decide if he’s worth the risk, isn’t it? And they obviously feel that’s not the case. Or that they are better options for 50 mil out there. Otherwise he would have been a Liverpool player already joining Mac Allister and Sloboszlai for whom we paid the respective clauses without batting an eye.
Right. So if he was closer to the player he might become he might be worth £50m. Right now he’s vastly over priced at that figure but we may well find ourselves having to pay that.
And yes, what was £5m is now £50m but that change hasn’t happened in the last two years. We’re talking about a £10m risk Southampton took last summer now being worth £50m.
Im intrigued by how people perceive players valuations so humour me here. What would you be happy selling Curtis Jones and Harvey Elliott for?
I think they would be 20 and 25m. Not saying I would sell them.
They have not had enough impact as of yet. Lavia has, albeit at a smaller club.
Not saying it’s right but that’s how value is perceived.
His market value was probably closer to 20 million last year though. That is the upper limit on the deal City and Southampton just finalized for the less talented Shae Charles (10m up front with another 10 in obtainable add ons). They have a similar record at youth level, but Lavia achieved his success at that level at a notably younger age, and likely has a significantly higher ceiling. Given that add ons on his deal didnt make sense as there was the expectation he wouldnt be a club like Southampton long enough to fulful them. Instead, City expect to make up the other 10 million in their cut of his sell on.
So what we’re looking at now is more like a doubling of his market value, something that I think is pretty reasonable given that obstacle he overcome last year, the step up from being a youth stand out to a premier league player, is probably the biggest one a player has to make in their career.
Just looking back to remember what I said about Lavia at the start and end of last season. I think @cynicaloldgit will enjoy it.
The guru has spoken, now pay saints their fuckin money:
Not your bland, run of the mill press resistant, he’s the excellent version.
