The Unreliable Rumours Discussion Thread (Part 1)

4 goals in 20 Premier league games and 1 assist is what you base it on.

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Form is temporary, class is permanentā€¦

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I find that statement funny.

No one can honestly think weā€™re going to buy Mbappe surely?

Break our transfer record by Ā£45m during a time when we canā€™t even shift our dead wood for acceptable sums? Donā€™t see it.

Selling Mane to fund it? Okay but who has the money to buy him and give us the kind of fee to allow us to do the Mbappe deal? Well PSG is about the only possible club that have that cash.

Currently on Ā£375k a week. Can we see him dropping that significantly because we canā€™t afford that and all the other rises that would come from that new benchmark given revenues are Ā£120m down and counting.

Amazing player but he ainā€™t coming here any time soon.

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The only sides who have the money to unwedge Mane or Salah from us are the sides who are going to be going for Mbappe and Halaand. Yeah, itā€™s a non starter. The only chance for either is they are content to sit out one more year then move for free or at greatly reduced cost (not sure if Mbappe would also be out of contract by then).

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And how much would Mbappe want a week if he was moving on a bosman? We all know ā€œfreeā€ usually comes with some pretty big associated costs.

Canā€™t see us ever wanting to deal with Raiola either. Youā€™re only ever a couple months away from him stirring the pot and trying to move his big assets on for another comission.

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Salah earns more from playing for LFC and being at LFC than Mbappe earns for playing for PSG and being at PSG.

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That must be some bonus structure Salah is on to bridge a Ā£175k a week gap. And if Salah is getting those kind of bonuses then it stands to reason that Mbappe would too and with a significantly higher base salary to boot.

Also, Forbes contradict themselves on player earnings here so maybe not the most reliable source. As a base salary, Mbappe is earning almost twice what Salah is based on most reports.

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Why must it? LFC structure their wages completely different than PSG. Thereā€™s this assumption that heā€™s leaving PSG because they arenā€™t offering him enough. I think thatā€™s nonsense personally. If he comes here itā€™s because he isnā€™t wanting simply the highest wages which is PSG or City, both supposedly not options he wants. He can earn as much or more here than he currently earns at PSG. It is that simple really. At a club with more exposure and in a more respected league.

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All the sensible posts about Mbappe are, likely, spot on. Financially out of reach.

Still, while his future remains up in the air, strange as it sounds, with Lebron, with Nike, with the recent investment, and with our three main forwards all getting olderā€¦ not past it by any means, but assuming we want to manage the change and move them on one by one, thereā€™s an outside chance for Mbappe.

I feel like a kid in a sweet shop for saying it, as it does seem childish and outlandish, but Iā€™m still thinking thereā€™s a bit of a chance for it to happen.

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So one of the best players on the planet, who is currently paid like one of the best players on the planet, is going to not only take a pay cut on his base salary but also be happy not to have parity with the clubs current best paid players when it comes to bonuses all because he wants to play in the Premier League. But just not at City where heā€™d get paid far more and lets be honest, be more likely to win trophies.

However you paint it, he will want huge wages because his talent warrants them and that isnā€™t how we operate, especially in the current financial climate. Then thereā€™s the small matter of a Ā£120m plus fee to rustle up whilst also making sure we can afford to buy at least one, if not two centre backs, and maybe a replacement for Gini. Itā€™s total fantasy.

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I donā€™t think anyone gives a shit on their base salary unless theyā€™re worried of not achieving their bonuses. What youā€™re arguing is a top salesman in his field is going to be worried about his base salary in case he doesnā€™t chalk up those figures. Highly doubtful. His salary here can match or better his salary there. Iā€™ve said a few times I think Mane and Firmino may leave this summer. That clears up more on the wage bill than he currently earns, by quite a significant way actually, and brings in fees to do the deals. 3 years ago we had a summer that over 3 years of payments was about Ā£50+m a year being paid out by LFC to other clubs. That finished in the financial accounts we are currently in and from next summer that Ā£50m a year no longer being paid COULD be allowed to continue. If it does thatā€™s the equivalent of Ā£150m over 3 years before any cash from sales comes into the club. It really might not happen. But Mbappe is going somewhere over the next 3 windows. We can match or even improve his wages. His main motivation doesnā€™t actually appear to be wages. And from people have some connections there we are constantly listed as one of the only options. It may not be likely its not fantasy though. The amount of scorn and derision isnā€™t really justified.

I think the main things that could make Mbappe possible is that he has spoken with admiration for this team and for Klopp. So at 22 he could come here, enjoy his football, win some medals and still move to Real Madrid (who I think is his no.1 choice) after 3 years.

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If anything, I think the level of derision is pretty low considering the hoops youā€™ve jumped through to get to the idea itā€™s even possible.

Players donā€™t care about base salary even though it makes up a huge part of their renumeration? Sure, okay. The fact the best players have some of the highest base salaries is just a coincidence then.

Then weā€™re onto selling two of our front three. Firstly thereā€™s no indication of either of them wanting to leave. Secondly, why would we sell either of them, let alone both in this window? And if we sell both donā€™t we need to buy someone else too or are we back to the days of a front three then Origi as first backup option? And thirdly, weā€™re selling them to who exactly? Who has the money to buy either of them and pay their wages in a market that is certainly depressed from two years ago and possibly even more so than last summer when most of the clubs they could go to pulled back on transfer spending.

And then finally weā€™re back to more accounting and balance sheet chat where people with more knowledge in this area have continually had to correct your interpretation of things. At the most basic of levels letā€™s not forget we all lauded Edwards for securing Jota for just Ā£5m initially last summer so the rest of that Ā£40m still needs to be paid. Then if we do buy Konate, the strongest link weā€™ve had so far, that will need the buyout fee paid up front so we need Ā£35m ready in cash. And as for sales, we saw how hard they were to generate last summer, do you think it magically gets easier this summer with clubs counting the cost of Covid?

We wonā€™t pay him Ā£375k a week so we canā€™t match his base salary. Youā€™d imagine heā€™d want at least parity with whatever incentives Mo makes. So no, we canā€™t better his wages. If his motivation is trophies, weā€™re a good option but perhaps not the best option and those that are better options can also offer more money.

I get that itā€™s nice to dream though.

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Right I donā€™t know how I need to explain this any other way.

Mbappe isnā€™t fantasy based on wages because we actually have a player who earns more wages off us than he does. Trying to say base salary needs to match what he has there PLUS his bonuses here would have to match Salahs bonuses here is actually arguing that a very specific type of wage demand would have to he made. Thatā€™s bullshit. You donā€™t know that. We donā€™t know how our wages are made up, you donā€™t actually even know Mbappes base is higher than Salahs youā€™re just going off hearsay. On final figures Salah earned more than Mbappe did, thatā€™s what we know.

Itā€™s not jumping through hoops itā€™s also not talking about amortisation like the debates you mention. Unrelated completely despite you trying to argue the person not the argument.

Cash, Liverpool is due to pay somewhere around over Ā£50m less this coming financial year than last year. Football transfers are paid in installments almost always. Ā£50+m is the equivalent of being able to spend over Ā£150m in fees, before sales. If we are allowed to keep our bills at the same level. The talk over the FSG buy in is that we can.

This isnā€™t jumping through hoops itā€™s trying to understand if the club do actually have money to spend, instead of just guessing.

We donā€™t know Salah earned more than Mbappe. One Forbes article stated that based on 2019 earnings. I then pointed out that was contradicted by another, more recent Forbes article that youā€™ve yet to even acknowledge.

Now, I appreciate I donā€™t know anyoneā€™s salary for sure, but youā€™re asserting you know Mbappe made more than Salah based on what? Payslips you have in your hand? First hand testimony from both players? Tax records? Or that one Forbes article? Because you canā€™t say Iā€™m basing my assessment on ā€œhearsayā€ without acknowledging you are also basing things on hearsay. However, what is fairly universally reported and accepted is Salah makes about Ā£200k a week, Mbappe Ā£375k. Thatā€™s a Ā£9m gap to be made up for in bonuses. Not impossible but itā€™s not as if Mbappe wouldnā€™t be making some himself so realistically youā€™re looking at Mo needing to earn what, Ā£10m? Ā£15m? Ā£20m in bonuses?

Now if you think Mbappe would jump at the chance to take a huge cut in his base salary and happily accept less in incentives than Salah gets to come play for us then be my guest. Youā€™re also free to believe a leprechaun will pick you up on the back of his unicorn tomorrow to take you to see the Easter Bunny too. Both have about the same chances of happening.

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According to the Swiss Ramble thread from last september, the clubā€™s operating profit for the 3 year period up to the last published set of accounts for 2018/19 showed the club just creeping into the black (or green?) in those years. As I understand it, the operating profit doesnā€™t usually take into account money spent on or earned from transfers.

Our spending on new players has therefore largely come from money we have raised through player sales (where the bulk of the profits have come from during that period). Once it has been spent, it is gone. That same thread indicated that in 2020 and beyond we probably already owed significantly more for transfer payments, than we were due to receive.

In short, I donā€™t see where this Ā£50m comes from?

And, that is before considering the fall in the clubā€™s revenues over the last 12 months, and the number of contracts to key players that will need to be renegotiated in the near future.

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Not sure youā€™ve understood it right or heā€™s looked at it correct. 2020/21 accounts are this year we are in. Not next summer which is in the 2021/22 accounts.

You only need to look at what has been spent on players and raised on sales over the last few seasons. LFC mostly seemed to structure our purchases over 3 seasons worth of payments prior to Covid and 4 years since then.

Two years of accounts ago 2019/20 we probably still had the final payments of the Ā£175m of sales in 2017/18 coming in so there was nothing significant coming in in 19/20. That might be what heā€™s going on about. But in 17/18 we committed to Ā£156m out going which will have also finished. 2018/19 was our big year, the one that might now matter. Spending Ā£164m which looks like it would have finished being paid off in the last year. Keeping in mind all clauses would have almost certainly been triggered by then with CL and PL title wins.

Since then, the years still on our books for this next financial year, weā€™ve spent around Ā£84m with around Ā£75-80m coming in.

I fail to see how, with the 2018/19 seasons spending due to be finalised, how we end up in a worse position. Thatā€™s over Ā£50m per year in outgoing payment commitments finished.

Are you are still going by the profit and loss account/Income statement?

Nope talking purely cashflow. You make the final payment of Ā£500 per month on a car on finance then one of 3 things happen next month. 1 Youā€™re Ā£500 a month better off 2 You can use Ā£500 a month to pay off other finance 3 you can use Ā£500 a month towards something new keeping your outgoing payments the same.

LFC will have been paying around Ā£164m for the spending in the 2018/19 season under some form of payment structure. Weā€™ve won the CL and PL so vast majority of clauses will have been triggered and paid if not all. We traditionally (till last summer) spread our payments over 3 years, last year would have been the last of those. That cash payment has either fully paid off now or there might be some trickle out payments based on appearances.

Our purchases since have been way down. If we are allowed to keep our outgoing payments of cash on player purchases in 2021/22 at the same as they were in 2020/21 then we should have some significant room when it comes to buying before we add player sales in. All still self sufficient without needing cash Iā€™m for that financial year.

This is why it was very important to know what FSG were planning after that investment. If they want LFC to recover any losses in previous financial years first then we are in for a shit summer of players leaving and not being replaced. But the talk is that the money coming in will allow them to take the losses on the chin and let us operate as normal.

Bizarre as it sounds LFC operating as normal would include the capacity to add a top top star this Summer when purely looking at cashflow.

Cashflow isnā€™t the only thing that needs satisfying though. But leaving that there.